Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Rising and Plummeting Stock

Being an avid NFL fan, I always pay very close attention to the annual NFL Draft, a process which the college players are being selected by the NFL teams in the reverse order of the teams' finishing positions the previous season.

Believe it or not, I have once done a thesis on the NFL Draft as part of my Master of Science in Sports Science course and earned a very good grade for it. But that's another story and I won't bore you to death with its history or stuff like that.

In short, eligible college players will try to perform to their very best during the season or at the scouting combine in order to showcase their potential to the teams. With high first-round draft picks netting contracts worth up to tens of millions of dollars, prospects will try everything to keep their stock rising.

But sometimes a player's stock would plummet through no fault of his own. Brady Quinn, the quarterback of Notre Dame, had been projected as the number one overall pick before the season started. He responded by leading the Fighting Irish to the Sugar Bowl, and was named the winner of the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (best senior quarterback) and the Maxwell Award (best collegiate football player), among other accolades. His future couldn't have looked brighter.

But during the period between his final game as a collegiate player and the NFL Draft, something strange happened. When the pundits reviewed the game tapes of this and previous seasons, they started criticizing his play, especially during big games. In this year's Sugar Bowl against Louisiana State for example, he had the worst passing performance against the Tigers quarterbacked by JaMarcus Russell, another highly-touted prospect. Ironically, Russell has now shot up to the very top of most teams' draft board and is now likely to be chosen first overall by the Oakland Raiders, thanks mostly to his great performance in THAT game.

Quinn himself was perplexed by his fallen stock. Given that most of the teams drafting in the top ten do not need a quarterback, he is now likely to fall down to around the tenth pick, a plunge that will cost him millions of dollars.

Quinn's next shot to go back to the top of the draft board is the school's pro day on March 4. Given the unexpected nature of the NFL Draft, don't be surprised to find Quinn's stock fluctuate greatly up to the draft.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Superbowl XLI

Peyton Manning finally got the gigantic ape off his back when he led the Indianapolis Colts to a 29-17 victory over the Chicago Bears in Superbowl XLI. He will no longer be remembered as the best QB never to have won the big game. And he was named the game's MVP to boot.

But the honour should have gone to someone else.

For sure, Manning's numbers were solid (25 of 38, 247 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT), but he couldn't get his two star receivers (Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne) into the game, who had only eight catches among them. The honour should have gone to either of the running backs Joseph Addai (close to 150 yards in total offense and with a game-high 10 catches) or Dominic Rhodes (21 carries for 113 yards, 1 TD). With the Bears so worried about Manning's long passing game and sending the two safeties some 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, it was Addai who either rushed through the middle or sneaked out of the backfield to snatch passes to gain so many important yardage for the Colts. Although Addai didn't score in the game, while Rhodes scored once on the ground, Addai's catches out of the backfield were by far the most important contribution for the Colts.

The Bears' offensive struggle was all too predictable. Apart from Thomas Jones' 52-yard run, they didn't have much offense going. And the erratic Rex Grossman's sub-par performance was not a surprise to anyone.

Grossman has been a puzzling mystery for the Bears. When he is good, he can be really good. But when he is bad, he can be really bad. Unfortunately for the Bears, he has chosen to be bad in the game.

When Grossman lobbed a long pass against the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Game, wideout Bernard Berrian somehow managed to out-jump two colliding defenders and rolled into the endzone. It was a very good day for him as he finally led the Bears to their first Superbowl for over 20 years. But when he lobbed another one to Muhsin Muhammad in the fourth quarter of this game, it was more like a punt which was literally up for grabs for everyone on the field. Colt's cornerback Kelvin Hayden caught it, did an outstanding job staying inbounds and returned it for a touchdown to put the final points on the scoreboard. But somehow Grossman didn't learn his lesson, and would lob another punt deep into the Colts' backfield and it was Bob Sanders this time who picked him off. Two terrible mistakes, which once again show that Grossman still has ways to go to become an elite QB.

But some of the blame should also go to the Bears' offensive co-ordinator Ron Turner, for relying too much on Grossman's arm in an attempt to catch the Colts. Cedric Benson's injury did affect their rushing game plan, but with Thomas Jones running effectively, and Grossman being once again the erratic QB that they didn't want him to be, the Bears should have increase their run-to-pass ratio. As it turned out, the Bears had 29 passing plays, but only 19 rushing plays. An inexcusable decision indeed.